Bill Wild, Phil Cavanagh, Kevin McNamara
Polls Show Race is Wide Open
The race for Wayne County Executive is anybody’s pick despite an early showing that Wayne County Sheriff Benny Napoleon is the favorite for now if he decides to run for the top job in county.
The poll, commissioned by the Michigan Chronicle and conducted by Lake Research Partners, a Washington, D.C. firm, shows Napoleon ahead of the three announced candidates but leaves a large number of undecided voters.
(Voters across gender, age, and race overwhelmingly give Bob Ficano a negative job performance rating.)
(In a match-up among Benny Napoleon and the three announced candidates, Napoleon leads the field with 20%, followed by Cavanagh at 14%. Nearly half of voters are undecided, leaving the race wide-open.)
(Napoleon has a strong lead among African American voters with 27%. Cavanagh leads Napoleon among white voters, though he lacks any intensity in his support (1% strongly support Cavanagh).
(Cavanagh has less intensity among his supporters. He performs best among older women, women in union households, and both white and African American women.)
In a matchup with candidates Phil Cavanagh, Kevin McNamara and Bill Wild, who have already declared they will be running, Napoleon leads with 20 percent of the 400 likely Democratic Primary voters surveyed in this poll. Cavanagh follows with 14 percent, McNamara 8 percent and Wild at 5 percent.
But the 49 percent undecided voters in the poll shows that the field is wide open in what will be a highly contested race because according to the poll, 48 percent rate current Wayne County Executive Robert Ficano as doing a poor job and only 26 percent says he is doing just fair. His support is at 3 percent. The margin of error is -4.9 percent.
Ficano’s administration has faced federal scrutiny with several aides cutting plea deals in a corruption investigation to avoid jail time and some already serving a sentence.
The poll also shows the color of the candidate will be significant in the run for county executive as 52 percent of White voters remain undecided with only 11 percent supporting Napoleon as Cavanagh gets 15 percent, McNamara at 10 percent and Wild at 8 percent.
Among African-American voters, 45 percent remain undecided with Napoleon leading by 27 percent, followed by Cavanagh with 14 percent, McNamara at 6 percent and Wild at 3 percent.
Another significant indication in the poll shows that support for Napoleon in a four way race among White women who make up the largest voting bloc in Wayne County is at 14 percent when compared to his support among African-American women voters which is at 24 percent. Only 8 percent of White men say they will support Napoleon when juxtaposed with 32 percent of African-American men who will support him.
On the other hand, Cavanagh’s support among White women is at 19 percent and he gets 17 percent from African-American women, 10 percent from White men and only 9 percent from African- American men.
“I think Napoleon’s numbers are just identification versus real support. If you are planning on a campaign from a Napoleon side having poor numbers with White women and not having a substantial base of Black women supporting you is problematic,” said Eric Foster, a senior strategist with LB3 Management. “White women are the largest plurality bloc of voters in Wayne County when you combine race and gender. African-American women and White men are statistically tied as the next largest bloc of voters. So to not have high numbers is problematic.”
Foster said Cavanagh, who came second to Napoleon in the poll, is where he should be.
“He is at a comparable starting point of where he should be based on past electoral performance,” Foster said referring to Cavanagh’s race against Wayne County Treasurer Wojtowicz. He said Cavanagh is in the best position for the race “because he has built up voter history all over the county and has less baggage.”
Wild, who has been seen around town at stakeholder functions and Detroit events shaking hands, did not do so well because according to Foster, “he has spent time building outreach to stakeholders and hasn’t spent time building numbers with core voting groups in Wayne County.”
Wild, the mayor of Westland, has been very aggressive in his outreach efforts to business and political leaders.
“There are 1069 precincts in Wayne County and Westland only makes up of 45 precincts. He has a lot of ground to cover,” Foster said. “His time is better spent reaching voters not stakeholders.”
Adolph Mongo, political observer who has watched politics for decades in Detroit and Wayne County and advised the campaigns of many major politicians in the region, said the poll is significant because the number of undecided voters shows how fed up Wayne County residents are about their government and the political leaders leading them.
“This shows that people are just frustrated. If you can’t clearly pick a candidate out of the names polled, is a good indication that people are tuned out when it comes to elections,” Mongo said. “This is a good time for somebody who has a fresh perspective on what is going on in Wayne County to step up.”
Mongo said that person could be a woman candidate, which could set the stage for the county’s first female leader.
“These guys haven’t done a good job. It is time for a woman to emerge,” Mongo said.
Asked who would be an ideal female candidate, he responded, “She is sitting right there at city council,” referring to Saunteel Jenkins of the Detroit City Council.
“Although I don’t agree with her most of the time,” Mongo said.
Another female candidate that has been mentioned prominently in the political grapevine is Wayne County Prosecutor Kym Worthy.
Mongo said he doesn’t expect Napoleon to get into the race and that “Ficano needs to just drop out.”
At this point Mongo said, “Cavanagh has that kind of experience and will be a good county executive. I don’t know about Napoleon.”
Paul Welday, president of Renaissance Strategies and a Republican political advisor, said the poll is remarkable.
“That the incumbent sitting county executive is so low in this poll is a remarkable phenomenon,” Welday said. “There is absolutely no way that Ficano can get re-elected. If he decides to run he will be on the verge of embarrassment. Even with a crowded filed he is this low.”
Welday said Napoleon’s strong name ID comes clear in the poll, “but it also shows some weakness among voters if he is only polling 20 percent. That is a poor support. He could barely break African-American support.”
He said the leading candidate will have to build a broad base coalition in Wayne County with different communities including the Arab- American community.
Bankole Thompson is the editor of the Michigan Chronicle. E-mail bthompson@michronicle.com.
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