Schauer, Snyder: Neck and Neck

The race for governor is in high gear, and it is headed for a major showdown in November between incumbent Republican Gov. Rick Snyder and Democratic nominee Mark Schauer. The latest polling data puts the race at 44.6 vs 44.3 which means that if the election was held today, it would not be a cakewalk for the Snyder campaign. Added to this conundrum is the fact that the governor has not been able to break the magical number “50” which is causing concern among conservative commentators, including Nolan Finley of the Detroit News, who pointed out during an interview on “Flashpoint,” WDIV’s Sunday morning program that this is something to be concerned about.

Four months ago it was a completely different story because few expected Snyder would be in such a tight contest with Schauer with the election less than three months from now. But that’s politics and the tide changes based on how people are feeling about the current administration. Clearly, the Snyder campaign has some serious work to do to show the contrast between him and Schauer. I think Snyder’s supporters should stop denying the fact that this race is a toss-up and look at how the incumbent should hit the road.

This election should show the clear difference in ideology and pragmatism. In many ways, the Republicans made Schauer into a household name even before Democrats were able to introduce him to every living room. The GOP-supported television ads brought Schauer to our living rooms telling us he is the wrong man for the state’s top job before any dice were cast. The famous line in the TV commercials mocking the Democrat was “the shower is over.”

Well, the shower is not over yet, based on the recent numbers that are showing how the Democratic flag bearer has increased his points against Snyder.

And now Schauer is releasing his own TV commercials after the GOP ads helped him become a mainstay in the living rooms of voters.

The ads carefully target issues that are bound to resonate with Michigan voters: the auto industry rescue, education and middle class tax cuts. Clearly, these themes are presidential campaign themes but they are also matters that cannot be divorced from Michigan. The rescue of the auto industry by a Democratic administration took place in Michigan.

The debate over education cuts seems to give both Republicans and Democrats merits based on how it is argued. And the middle class fight is one that will always gain traction, especially the pensions of seniors that have been affected in the last four years.

But the biggest liability for the Snyder campaign could be the U.S. Senate race where the Republican candidate, Terri Lynn Land is performing dismally and facing all sorts of questions about her finances that are yet to be fully disclosed. In a previous column I wrote that Land’s campaign is a reminder of the Sarah Palin race and the fact that she did not get the traditional support from the Detroit Regional Chamber of Commerce which goes for Republican candidates most of the time shows there is fire in the cabin. The chamber went for Land’s Democratic opponent, Congressman Gary Peters.

The question now is, will Snyder and Land campaign together? Imagine that photo op at the GOP state convention as the candidates sing “Kumbaya” in their search for victory.

Will Snyder be forced to distance himself from Land on the campaign trail just as Sen. John McCain was running away from George Bush, like someone been chased by the police, even though he had the risky Palin as his running mate.

Plain and simple, the Michigan Republican ticket has a problem in 2014 and with Land on the ticket it will be difficult to differentiate the candidates because the party ethos requires all of them to run on the same philosophy and shared agenda.

Will Snyder become a casualty of Land?

As a father I give it to the governor — he vetoed the right wing crazy gun bill that would have allowed guns in schools even though he reneged on his promise of staying away from the right-to-work legislation. The explanation from the governor’s team is that unions were warned not to push collective bargaining as a constitutional mandate.

While that explanation may seem plausible to push right-to-work, it is not an excuse for the governor to eat his words. The burden of good conduct and integrity lies heavily with the man who occupies the highest elected office in the state.

Rape insurance is another issue that will resonate with voters. The passage of the bill and becoming law was a clear-cut indication of how mainstream GOP has been hijacked by the Tea Party and everything in between.

The “Rape Insurance Abortion Rider Law” now drops coverage for most abortions from current policies, including pregnancy from rape or incest.

What that means is that women who buy their own policies, instead of getting coverage through their employer, will not be able to purchase the additional coverage, which is called an abortion rider.

Honestly, the governor did not need to touch this issue. This is one issue that does not create many jobs or help the economy. It is purely a culture war issue, something the governor shied away from during his campaign for governor.

Signing a rape insurance bill into law does not bring about the “relentless positive action” the governor always talks about.

The making of this law raised many questions about the objectivity of Snyder who ran as a near independent candidate.

The interviews I’ve had with him, and the different times he’s visited my office and sat across my desk, he always gave me the impression of an independent-minded politician. Even when I would raise a partisan issue, he would fire back noting that the partisan divide is the problem in itself.

“Why can’t we all work together?” he would tell me.

But supporting the rape insurance was pledging loyalty to the right wing of his party.

It is no secret that abortion is at the center of the culture war in 21st American politics. Michigan was not starving for rape insurance. The engine of the state’s economy was not riding on rape insurance.

In the many business meetings I’ve attended organized by business groups including the Detroit Regional Chamber, not once have I heard a CEO tell me that we need to get rape insurance in order to get the economy moving stronger.

I’ve yet to receive an invitation to a forum trumpeting rape insurance as the flagship of Michigan’s economy.

On the other hand, if Democrats think because of Snyder’s perceived mistakes Detroit will vote en mass, they better think twice.

I can’t recall how many times I’ve warned Democrats not to take the Black vote for granted. Blacks want to know what Schauer is offering that is different from what Snyder has offered.

Despite the neck-and-neck race, it is still not a guarantee that the Democrats will take this election.

Despite Detroit being the largest Democratic base in the state, it is often being treated like a stepchild by the party. Let’s be clear. There was no adequate Democratic response to the bankruptcy in Detroit.

Yes, I’ve received press releases condemning the city’s entry into bankruptcy and emergency management, but no widely known and compelling alternative to the financial crisis in Detroit.

In fact, at a forum I moderated at Wayne County Community College District with Democratic candidate Schauer, I raised this issue — the absence of a meaningful Democratic response to the financial crisis in Detroit.

There was also no poignant Democratic response to the image-battering water shutoffs in Detroit.

Mark Schauer should have held a press conference, not only condemning the shutoffs but presenting regional solutions to Detroit’s water crisis. The next leader of the state should be about measurable solutions, especially on an issue like the water crisis.

Yes, it is one thing to criticize Snyder whose campaign has serious and credible issues to deal with as we head to November, but it is another thing to present to Detroit voters concrete alternatives that would make their lives better.

But as political operatives would tell you, three months is enough time to make serious changes.

So let’s hope that Schauer and Snyder will both go back to the drawing board with a view to making real changes happen.

This election is going to be dominated by the events that took place in Detroit in the last two years. And what Snyder believes was his duty, to intervene in the financial state of the city, may bruise him in other parts of the state where Detroit is not highly favored.

What Schauer sees as a familiar territory with regard to the Black vote could be strange territory because Detroit pensioners want to know how he would make their lives better.

And that starts by showing them a well put-out plan that will redress their pension situations while making the city solvent. For me, what matters is for the most Detroit-friendly candidate to win. I’m glad the race is very close.

Bankole Thompson is the editor of the Michigan Chronicle and author of a forthcoming book on Detroit. His most recent book, “Obama and Christian Loyalty,” deals with the politics of the religious right, Black theology and the president’s faith posture across a myriad of issues with an epilogue written by former White House spokesman Robert S. Weiner. He is a senior political analyst at WDET-101.9FM (Detroit Public Radio) and a member of the weekly “Obama Watch” Sunday roundtable on WLIB-1190AM New York. Email bthompson@michronicle.com or visit https://www.bankolethompson.com.