Sitting county boss Ficano can’t win
With the Detroit mayoral race now in the rearview mirror, political leaders and voters in the city, and throughout Wayne County, are gradually turning their attention to the Wayne County Executive’s race. While interest in the race has been lower than expected, some interesting findings from a recent poll may jump start conversations about the county’s top office.
In an independent poll conducted on behalf of the Michigan Chronicle, Lake Research Partners (LRP), a Washington, D.C.-based firm, surveyed 400 likely 2014 Democratic Primary voters in Wayne County about the executive’s race. The results: Sheriff Benny Napoleon was the top choice. Napoleon, who has not decided if he will or will not run, garnered 20 percent support, followed by declared candidates Phil Cavanagh at 14 percent, Kevin McNamara at 8 percent, and Bill Wild at 5 percent. Undecided voters factored in at 49 percent. The remaining 4 percent are voters who prefer another candidate or who declined to answer.
The poll was conducted by telephone between March 12 and 14, 2014. The data were weighted by age, gender, and region. According to LRP’s pollster, Jeff Klinger, who along with firm partner David Mermin conducted the poll, Napoleon’s top spot is surprising. “Even though Sheriff Napoleon has not entered the race, he was the first choice,” said Klinger from his D.C. office. “I was surprised that he fared so well as an undeclared candidate. This early poll showed that he has strong appeal among voters. However, the margin of sampling error for this survey is a plus/minus 4.9 perc.ent”
Klinger quickly urged caution in viewing any front runner at this juncture. “Things can change rather quickly,” said Klinger. “There are a lot of undecided voters out there. As campaign strategies heat up, undecided voters can greatly change things for any front runner. A well-funded campaign created to reach undecided voters could change the dynamics of the race.”
While Napoleon’s poll-leading status may be surprising to some, for one veteran political analyst it is not. “Sheriff Napoleon as the front runner is good and is not a surprise to me,” said Art Blackwell, former Wayne County Commission chair, political consultant, and host of “The Art of Politics” radio program. “It’s great to see what people think of him county wide. The poll shows him to be a very strong and viable candidate should he decide to run.”
Jimmy Settles, Jr., UAW vice president, whose organization endorsed Napoleon in the mayoral race, and Eddie MacDonald, Napoleon’s former mayoral campaign manager, didn’t want to comment on the poll. Settles said that he needed a chance to analyze the poll in its entirety before responding. MacDonald said he just wanted to hold off making any comments at this time.
However, Blackwell was more than willing to speak on the poll as it relates to Napoleon. When asked whether Napoleon should get into the race, Blackwell responded, “I would be supportive of him running because during the mayoral race he did such a great job of letting voters know exactly what he stood for. I think the same issues that affect Detroit affect Wayne County, with the city being about half of the county. I believe the other cities that make up Wayne County are in need of a strong and dynamic leader like Benny Napoleon.”
Blackwell continued, “Sheriff Napoleon is a county-wide elected official who has all the skills and background needed to be an outstanding chief executive in Wayne County. Based on the fact that he has not even announced that he will run, and is the front runner, is a strong indication to me that people feel that Benny Napoleon is the right guy for the job.”
The poll also showed that almost three-quarters of likely 2014 Democratic Primary voters believe that current Wayne County Executive Robert Ficano’s job performance is poor. (48 percent poor to 26 percent fair). At this time, Ficano has not publicly said if he will seek re-election.
“Ficano has been in the position of public service for a long time,” said Blackwell. “However, it’s no secret that there’s been a number of issues in his administration, and people hold him responsible for the people that he has put around him. It’s not surprising that voters believe that he has not done a very good job lately.”
When told that if Freman Hendrix, a well-known African-American local politician who ran for mayor of Detroit twice, were to enter the race, he would cut into Napoleon’s voter-support decreased by 2 percent, Blackwell stated, “Hendrix ate into Benny by two percent, but he (Hendrix) also ate into the candidates that have officially filed to run, Although Sheriff Napoleon’s percentages dipped slightly, it still means that two prominent African Americans can run for the office, with Benny coming in first. That’s a further sign of the extremely strong support that’s out there for Sheriff Napoleon.”
Blackwell added that he believes that Napoleon has broad appeal among other ethnic groups.
“Sherriff Napoleon has support among White voters as well,” said Blackwell. “His support is strong and diverse. It does not matter who gets into the race, if Sherriff Napoleon decides to run, he will be fine.”
The poll also showed that Napoleon led all declared candidates among both older and younger voters. He also received a 2-point edge among voters in union households, slightly higher than Cavanagh. In non-union households, Napoleon again led the pack with 20 percent, with Cavanagh coming in at 13 percent.
But 51 percent of non-union households are undecided.
“This race will be wide open because approximately half of the voters polled are still undecided,” Klinger said. “There does not seem to be lot of interest in the race at this time, which I found rather surprising. But I expect that will change pretty quickly as the deadline for filing gets closer.”
The last day to file for candidacy in the Wayne County Executive’s race is Tuesday, April 22, 2014. The Primary election is Tuesday, Aug. 5; the general election is Tuesday, Nov. 4.
About Lake Research Partners:
The research firm is one of America’s leading and most respected public opinion and political strategy research entities, which provides expert research- based strategy for campaigns, issue advocacy groups, foundations and other organizations. The company is headquartered in Washington, D.C., with offices in New York and Berkeley, California. Celinda Lake, one of the Democratic Party’s leading political strategies, serves as the firm’s president.
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